This is intellectually surprising, and if not exactly humiliating, it gives one a feeling of modesty about the limits of rational or traditional thinking. “I noticed that it may be much more practical to … laying down the cards, or experimenting with the process and merely noticing what proportion comes out successfully, rather than to try to compute all the combinatorial possibilities which are an exponentially increasing number so great that, except in very elementary cases, there is no way to estimate it. building an atomic bomb), was recovering from illness in the hospital, playing solitaire. In 1946, Stanislaw Ulam, a Polish Nuclear Scientist working on the Manhattan Project (i.e. The technique was first used by scientists working on the atom bomb it was named for Monte Carlo, the Monaco resort town renowned for its casinos. The History of the Monte-Carlo Simulation The thing I love about this method, is that you don’t even have to be good at math. You’d look a lot more professional, and you’d force them to admit, there is some randomness involved in guessing what will happen in the future. Wouldn’t it be great if instead of a single number to argue over, you could provide your boss or client with a range of potential outcomes? In short, it’s a forecasting super power.
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